The European real estate market, particularly in Italy, seems to be holding steady despite the looming shadow of US-imposed tariffs. But what is the actual impact on the Real Estate sector?

Real Estate and Tariffs: Two (Almost) Separate Worlds

Unlike other industries, Real Estate is not a transportable good, nor is it subject to direct border taxation. While US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements have had a strong media impact, they do not directly affect the property sector.

Any potential impact would come indirectly, particularly if building materials or energy-producing raw materials were to be included in the tariffs. As of now, however, those remain exempt.

Institutional Investors: A Growing Opportunity in European Real Estate

According to Mario Breglia, president of Scenari Immobiliari, the current situation may actually turn out to be positive for institutional investments. Unlike the 2010 crisis, which stemmed from financial turmoil, today’s global financial flows remain stable. This leads major investors to seek safer, more stable assets—making real estate, especially offices and logistics, a strategic choice.

Within this context, European countries such as Germany, France, the UK, and Italy are becoming increasingly attractive. Italy, for instance, closed the previous year with nearly €10 billion in real estate investments—a trend experts believe will continue.

Spain is also seeing strong growth, highlighting how investor confidence remains high despite global geopolitical uncertainty.

Households and Mortgages: Watching Inflation and Interest Rates

It’s a different story for households and small investors. The impact of tariffs on the real economy could indirectly affect the residential market, particularly if manufacturing sectors—highly exposed to US exports—are hit.

If trade tensions result in declining employment and household income, housing demand could take a hit. However, in a scenario of low or falling interest rates, mortgages remain accessible, potentially encouraging home purchases.

The real concern? A return of inflation, which could force central banks to raise rates. This would make borrowing more expensive and could cool down the real estate market, particularly in new developments and property pipelines.

Keep an Eye on Economic Indicators

In short, US tariffs do not currently pose a direct threat to Real Estate. The sector remains a safe haven for institutional investors, while for households, much depends on broader macroeconomic trends and interest rate movements.